Wales Faces 19-Year Healthy Life Expectancy Gap 2026

Key Points

• The Wellbeing of Wales: 2026 report reveals that the healthy life expectancy disparity between women living in Wales’ most and least deprived regions is 19 years.
• The disparity is 18.1 years for men, described by the Welsh Government as the largest disparity on record for Welsh males.
• Women in Wales are expected to live for 58.5 years healthy while men are expected to live for 59.2 years healthy.
• Healthy life expectancy has dropped for the fourth reporting period in a row, for both women and men.
• The national milestone set out by the Welsh Government is to raise healthy life expectancy and to reduce the deprivation gap by at least 15% by 2050.
• Derek Walker, Future Generations Commissioner for Wales, is calling for more prevention funding and protection across all the government departments.
• Prevention has been proven to deliver up to £14 worth of returns for every £1 spent according to Public Health Wales research referred to by the Commissioner.
• A prevention budgeting tool to be launched on October 22 will help public bodies monitor their prevention spending.
• The Commissioner has once again called upon the Plaid Cymru-led Welsh Government to safeguard the prevention funding in the budget.

Wales (Wales Times) October 15, 2026 – A new Welsh Government report has revealed that people living in the most deprived areas of Wales can expect to spend up to 19 fewer years in good health than those in the least deprived areas, prompting calls for a fundamental shift towards prevention-led public policy.

As reported by Nation Cymru, the findings come from the Wellbeing of Wales: 2026 report, which shows that the healthy life expectancy gap between Wales’s most and least deprived communities has continued to widen. For women, the difference is approximately 19 years, while for men it stands at 18.1 years—the widest recorded gap for Welsh males.

The report also found that healthy life expectancy in Wales has fallen for the fourth consecutive reporting period. Women are now expected to live 58.5 years in good health, compared with 59.2 years for men.

What Does The Report Say About Healthy Life Expectancy?

The Welsh Government defines healthy life expectancy as the average time a person is expected to live in good or very good health. Its official report states that the measure has continued to decline for both women and men, despite overall life expectancy returning to pre-COVID-19 pandemic levels.

According to the Welsh Government’s Wellbeing of Wales: 2026 report, life expectancy at birth in 2022 to 2024 rose to 82.2 years for females and 78.3 years for males. However, healthy life expectancy fell to 58.5 years for females and 59.2 years for males over the same period.

The report states that the gap between the most and least deprived areas has deteriorated for both sexes. For women, the gap increased from 17.5 years in 2015 to 2017 to 19.0 years in 2022 to 2024. For men, it rose from 17.0 years to 18.1 years over the same period.

The Welsh Government says the male gap is now at its widest on record. It also states that, between 2013 and 2024, the healthy life expectancy gap between the most and least deprived areas increased for both females and males.

Why Is The Gap Considered Significant?

The figures indicate that people in deprived communities are not only facing shorter lives in poor health, but are also spending a greater proportion of their lives managing illness or limited wellbeing.

As reported by Nation Cymru, Future Generations Commissioner for Wales Derek Walker warned that a person’s postcode should not determine their chances of living a healthy life. He argued that the causes of poor health often begin long before someone requires medical treatment.

“Where someone lives should not determine their chances of living a healthy life, and reversing the trend will require sustained investment and coordinated action across government, well beyond the NHS,” Walker said, as quoted by Nation Cymru.

He said decisions on housing, income, employment, transport, food, clean air and access to green space all influence health outcomes. According to Nation Cymru, the Commissioner called for prevention to become a shared responsibility across the Welsh Government and public services.

What Has The Commissioner Called For?

Derek Walker has called for increased and protected investment in prevention, arguing that Wales cannot continue to pay for the consequences of poor health without addressing its underlying causes.

“We cannot keep paying for the consequences of poor health without doing more to address its causes, especially as the report shows that our health is still deteriorating with inequalities widening and a lot of it is avoidable,” Walker said, as reported by Nation Cymru.

He added: “The choices we make today will shape the health of Wales for generations.”

The Commissioner’s recommendations include making Wales the first “Marmot nation” in order to reduce health inequity. He is also working to increase fair pay through wider adoption of the Real Living Wage and to improve equitable access to food.

Nation Cymru reported that Walker is supporting health boards to spend more on prevention for communities across Wales. He has also urged the Welsh Government to demonstrate how its spending decisions will address the causes of poor health and help close the widening healthy life expectancy gap.

What Is The Prevention Budgeting Tool?

A new prevention budgeting tool, described by Nation Cymru as the first of its kind, is due to launch on October 22. It has been developed by the Future Generations Commissioner’s team.

The tool is intended to help public bodies better understand how much they spend on preventing problems before they arise. Nation Cymru reported that preventative spending has historically been difficult to identify and track.

The Commissioner’s work suggests that investment in prevention may be lower than expected, with health boards spending less than 5% on prevention as an example, according to Nation Cymru.

Public Health Wales estimates that preventative interventions can generate returns of up to £14 for every £1 invested. Nation Cymru also cited Public Health Wales research linking access to green and blue spaces—including public parks, green roofs, lakes, ponds, fountains and sustainable drainage systems—to improved mental health and social returns of up to £28 for every £1 invested.

What Does Public Health Wales Say About Prevention?

A separate Public Health Wales report, Approaches to Measuring and Growing Prevention Spend and Investment, warns that health systems continue to spend too little on measures that can prevent illness, reduce pressure on services and improve wellbeing.

As reported by WIRED-GOV, the report highlights a significant gap between the scale of preventable disease and the proportion of health spending directed towards prevention. It states that, across OECD countries, just 3.4% of health expenditure was spent on preventative public health interventions in 2025.

The report says prevention investment can help people live longer and healthier lives, improve the resilience of public systems and support the wider economy. It identifies approaches used internationally to shift funding towards prevention, including ring-fenced prevention budgets, cross-sector budgeting, earmarked taxes, outcome-based investment and longer-term budget planning.

It also calls for a consistent way to measure prevention spending, including investment outside the health service in housing, education, transport and social protection. According to WIRED-GOV, the report says action in these areas can have a major impact on health and wellbeing.

How Is The Welsh Government Responding?

The Welsh Government’s Programme for Government 2026 to 2030 well-being statement acknowledges that progress towards a healthier Wales has been limited, with declining healthy life expectancy and other indicators pointing to ongoing challenges.

The Welsh Government says it will ensure integrated care is delivered closer to home with prevention at its core, supporting earlier diagnosis, reduced admissions and delays in discharge. It also commits to embedding health prevention in policy development across government.

According to the Welsh Government, this approach recognises that many factors shaping health and wellbeing sit beyond health and care services. Its stated priorities include preventing ill health, breaking the cycle of poverty, improving educational outcomes, reducing inequalities, building resilience to climate change and giving children the best start in life.

The Welsh Government says budget decisions will continue to be informed by its Programme for Government, available evidence and longer-term fiscal planning. It says cross-government work alongside budget processes will help balance short-term resources with decisions that better support well-being goals.

What Is Wales’s National Target?

The Welsh Government’s national milestone is to increase healthy life expectancy among adults and narrow the gap between the least and most deprived areas by at least 15% by 2050.

The Wellbeing of Wales: 2026 report marks progress towards that milestone as “deteriorated”. It states that adult healthy life expectancy declined between 2015 to 2017 and 2022 to 2024, while the deprivation gap widened for both women and men.

The report is the tenth Wellbeing of Wales report published under the Well-being of Future Generations (Wales) Act 2015. According to the Welsh Government, the Act provides the framework for assessing progress towards Wales’s seven well-being goals.

Welsh Government Chief Statistician’s foreword to the report states that healthy life expectancy continues to fall and health inequalities are widening. It also notes that biodiversity continues to decline, alongside other long-term challenges.

Are Younger People Also Affected?

The report highlights concerns about younger people’s wellbeing. As reported by Nation Cymru, it found that mental wellbeing is in decline and that only 18.3% of younger people engage in physical activity for at least an hour a day.

The Commissioner argues that these trends reinforce the need for early intervention and cross-government action. He says improving long-term wellbeing, reducing inequalities and easing pressure on stretched services requires investment beyond the NHS.

The report also identifies areas of long-term progress, including significant improvements in air quality since the 1970s. Nation Cymru reported that Derek Walker said this demonstrates that change is possible when action is taken over the long term to address conditions affecting people’s health.

What Happens Next?

The Commissioner has renewed his call for the Welsh Government to ringfence funding for prevention and increase it year on year. Nation Cymru reported that he first made that call in January 2025, warning that short-term budget pressures could undermine long-term investment.

Following the autumn supplementary budget deal, he is now urging the Plaid Cymru-led Welsh Government to show how spending decisions will tackle the causes of poor health.

Wales now has its first Deputy Minister for Prevention, who has asked the Welsh Government to protect prevention spending in the next budget. Nation Cymru reported that the Commissioner will analyse this as part of his work on the scale and urgency of the challenge.

The prevention budgeting tool’s launch on October 22 is expected to provide public bodies with a way to measure and understand prevention expenditure. Its supporters argue that better measurement could help shift spending towards early intervention rather than later treatment.

Background Of The Development

Healthy life expectancy measures the number of years a person is expected to live in good or very good health. It differs from overall life expectancy, which measures how long someone is expected to live regardless of their health status.

The latest figures cover 2022 to 2024 and are based on data published through the Office for National Statistics and the Public Health Wales Observatory. The Welsh Government says Public Health Wales is currently the main source cited for this indicator because its Wales time series is more complete.

The Wellbeing of Wales: 2026 report was first published on October 1, 2026. It assesses progress across social, economic, environmental and cultural wellbeing under the Well-being of Future Generations (Wales) Act 2015.

The report’s findings follow earlier Public Health Wales analysis, which found that healthy life expectancy had declined for a fourth consecutive period. That analysis recorded male healthy life expectancy at 59.2 years and female healthy life expectancy at 58.5 years in 2022 to 2024, both down by 1.1 years from 2021 to 2023.

Prediction: What Could This Mean For Welsh Communities?

For residents in Wales’s most deprived areas, the findings suggest that without stronger prevention-focused action, the difference in years spent in good health may remain substantial. Communities facing lower incomes, poorer housing, limited access to healthy food and fewer green spaces may continue to experience the greatest health burdens.

For the NHS and local public services, a widening healthy life expectancy gap could increase demand for treatment, social care and emergency services. The Welsh Government’s own programme statement links prevention to earlier diagnosis, reduced admissions and reduced discharge delays.

For policymakers, the report is likely to increase pressure to protect and expand prevention budgets. The launch of the prevention budgeting tool may make it easier for public bodies to identify where money is being spent on early intervention, potentially influencing future budget allocations.

For employers, housing providers, schools, transport bodies and local authorities, the Commissioner’s approach signals growing expectations that health outcomes should be considered across public policy. If prevention spending is ringfenced, funding may increasingly be directed towards warm homes, clean air, fair work, accessible food and community wellbeing initiatives.

For Welsh voters and community groups, the development may shape debate ahead of future budget decisions. The central issue will be whether the Welsh Government can convert its prevention commitments into measurable reductions in the healthy life expectancy gap by its 2050 milestone.