Plaid Cymru Senedd Poll: Beaufort Research Gives Party 33% Lead 2026

Key Points

• According to the Beaufort Research poll conducted for Nation.Cymru, Plaid Cymru has received 33% and Reform UK 30% in terms of Senedd voting intentions.
• The advantage of just three percentage points shows that Plaid Cymru continues to be ahead of Reform UK, despite falling by 2.4 percentage points since the Senedd election in May.
• Reform UK got 30% and gained 0.7 percentage points compared to the Senedd election in May.
• Labour got 15% and increased by 3.9 percentage points, while the Conservatives got 11% and increased by 0.3 points.
• The Green Party obtained 6% and lost 0.7 percentage points, the Liberal Democrats – 4% and dropped 0.5 points, while others scored 2%.
• The headline voting intention figures are derived from 488 very likely voters who assessed their likelihood to vote with a score of nine or 10 out of 10.
• The poll included 1,000 completed interviews and fieldwork was conducted from September 21 to October 11.
• In terms of ABC1 respondents, Plaid Cymru led on 37%, then Reform UK on 22% and Labour on 15%.
• The poll was conducted prior to ITV’s undercover documentary that apparently showed several Reform figures making racist and misogynistic comments.

Wales (Wales Times) October 24, 2026 — Plaid Cymru holds a three-point lead over Reform UK in the latest Senedd voting-intention poll, according to Beaufort Research research commissioned by Nation.Cymru.

As reported by Nation.Cymru, the poll puts Plaid Cymru on 33%, Reform UK on 30%, Labour on 15%, the Conservatives on 11%, the Green Party on 6%, the Liberal Democrats on 4% and other parties on 2%.

The figures show Plaid Cymru down 2.4 percentage points from its May Senedd election result, while Reform UK has risen by 0.7 percentage points. Labour has recorded the largest increase among the main parties, rising 3.9 percentage points to 15%.

The Conservatives are up 0.3 percentage points to 11%. The Green Party has fallen 0.7 percentage points to 6%, while the Liberal Democrats are down 0.5 percentage points to 4%.

The poll’s headline voting-intention figures are based on 488 respondents described as highly likely voters. Nation.Cymru reported that these respondents were aged 16 or over, expressed a party preference and rated their certainty of voting in a Senedd election as nine or 10 out of 10.

How was the Beaufort Research poll carried out?

The survey was carried out by Beaufort Research for Nation.Cymru. According to Nation.Cymru, fieldwork took place between September 21 and October 11, with 1,000 interviews completed and analysed.

The poll asked respondents about their voting intentions for a Senedd election. The published headline figures are based on the smaller subset of 488 people who were judged to be highly likely to vote.

The results were published on October 23. Nation.Cymru reported that the polling was undertaken before the recent ITV undercover documentary, which it said showed multiple Reform figures making racist and misogynistic comments.

The Pembrokeshire Herald also covered the poll, reporting that Plaid Cymru led Reform UK by three points in the new Senedd survey.

Where does Plaid Cymru lead Reform UK?

Among respondents in the ABC1 social grade, Plaid Cymru leads with 37%, according to Nation.Cymru. Reform UK is second on 22%, followed by Labour on 15%.

The Conservatives are on 13% among ABC1 respondents, the Green Party on 7%, the Liberal Democrats on 4% and other parties on 1%.

Nation.Cymru did not publish equivalent regional or C2DE breakdowns in the material available for this report. The headline figures therefore describe overall Senedd voting intention rather than seat projections or constituency-level results.

How do the results compare with May’s Senedd election?

Plaid Cymru won the May 2026 Senedd election with 35.4% of the vote and 43 seats, according to the Senedd’s official election research briefing. Reform UK came second with 29.3% of the vote and 34 seats.

The new Beaufort Research figures show Plaid Cymru at 33%, a reduction of 2.4 percentage points from its election-day vote share. Reform UK’s 30% represents a 0.7 percentage-point increase from its May result.

Labour’s 15% is 3.9 percentage points higher than its May performance. The Conservatives’ 11% is up 0.3 points, while the Greens’ 6% is down 0.7 points and the Liberal Democrats’ 4% is down 0.5 points.

The Senedd research briefing records that Plaid Cymru’s strongest May results were in Bangor Conwy Môn and Gwynedd Maldwyn, where it received 44.93% of the vote, and in Sir Gaerfyrddin, where it received 43.06%. Its lowest shares were in Sir Fynwy Torfaen, Fflint Wrecsam and Clwyd.

Reform UK’s strongest May vote share was in Fflint Wrecsam, while its lowest was in Caerdydd Penarth, according to the Senedd research briefing.

What context surrounds the Reform UK figures?

Nation.Cymru reported that the Beaufort Research fieldwork was completed before ITV broadcast an undercover documentary involving Reform figures. The outlet said the documentary showed multiple Reform figures making racist and misogynistic comments.

The poll therefore does not measure any direct electoral effect of that broadcast. Nation.Cymru presented the timing as context for the findings rather than as evidence of a change caused by the programme.

Separately, a YouGov “Wales political snapshot” published on October 15 found that 66% of Welsh adults surveyed viewed Reform UK leader Nigel Farage unfavourably, while 23% viewed him favourably. YouGov surveyed 1,039 adults aged 16 and over in Wales between September 28 and October 5.

That YouGov survey measured favourability rather than voting intention. As reported by Nation.Cymru, it also found that 51% of respondents regarded Reform UK as one of Wales’s “main parties”, while 35% did not.

What does the poll mean for Welsh party politics?

The results place Plaid Cymru and Reform UK as the two leading parties in Senedd voting intention. Plaid Cymru’s three-point advantage is unchanged in size from some earlier polling, although the parties’ individual levels of support have moved.

Nation.Cymru reported that Plaid Cymru’s 33% is lower than its May election vote share of 35.4%, while Reform UK’s 30% is slightly higher than its 29.3% election result. Labour’s rise to 15% is the most notable movement among the smaller parties in the latest survey.

The poll does not provide a seat forecast. Under the Senedd’s electoral system, vote share does not translate directly into seats, and the final composition of the Senedd would depend on constituency and list results across Wales.

Background of the development

Plaid Cymru entered government for the first time after the May 2026 Senedd election. The party won 43 of the Senedd’s seats, while Reform UK won 34 and became the second-largest group.

The election reduced Labour to the third-largest party in the Senedd. The official Senedd research briefing records Plaid Cymru’s final vote share as 35.41% and Reform UK’s as 29.30%.

The latest Beaufort Research poll is part of a series of surveys examining Welsh political opinion since that election. Nation.Cymru commissioned the poll and published the results on October 23, while the Pembrokeshire Herald subsequently reported the same headline finding.

The survey period overlapped with a period of heightened political attention in Wales. YouGov’s separate October snapshot, published on October 15, examined party recognition, leader favourability and the issues Welsh respondents considered most important.

How could this development affect Welsh voters?

For Welsh voters, the poll suggests that Plaid Cymru and Reform UK remain the two main choices in Senedd voting intention, with Labour recording a recovery in support but still trailing both parties.

For Plaid Cymru supporters, the three-point lead indicates continued front-runner status, although the party’s reported decline of 2.4 percentage points since May may encourage closer attention to whether that support holds in future surveys.

For Reform UK supporters, the 30% figure suggests the party remains close behind Plaid Cymru and has slightly increased its support since the May election. The poll’s timing, before the ITV documentary, means later surveys may be needed to assess whether opinion has shifted.

For Labour, the rise to 15% represents the largest recorded increase among the parties in this poll. For the Conservatives, Greens and Liberal Democrats, the figures indicate comparatively limited movement in overall Senedd voting intention.

Because the headline sample consists of 488 highly likely voters, the findings are most useful as an indication of current voting intention among people most likely to participate in a Senedd election, rather than as a prediction of the next election result.