UK faces new independence referendum push from three nations, Wales 2026

Key Points

• First Ministers of Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland will hold a summit in Cardiff next week and sign a declaration about self-determination and independence referendums together.
• It is reported that the document addresses four topics, namely the economy, energy, Europe, and international cooperation including self-determination.
• The Sinn Féin party leader Mary Lou McDonald is said to participate in the summit along with First Ministers John Swinney, Rhun ap Iorwerth and Michelle O’Neill.
• According to Prime Minister Andy Burnham, a referendum in favor of Scotland’s independence can be held provided there is clear majority approval from the population.
• Both Downing Street and Prime Minister Burnham claim that there is no common opinion on the need for holding a referendum in Scotland and Northern Ireland.
• John Swinney sent a letter to Andy Burnham asking him to discuss a legal possibility of holding a referendum, including Section 30.

Wales (Wales Times) September 13, 2026 – The leaders of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland are set to meet on Monday in uk/local/cardiff/">Cardiff to sign a joint declaration demanding the right to hold independence referendums, in a move that could intensify pressure on the UK government to reconsider its stance on constitutional change.

According to The Telegraph, the three first ministers will use the summit to assert their respective nations’ right to self-determination, including the possibility of pursuing independence through democratic means. The planned agreement is expected to commit the parties to cooperation in four broad areas: the economy, energy, Europe, and international cooperation and self-determination.

As reported by The Telegraph, the declaration will argue that Scotland and Wales should be allowed to join the European Union as new members, while Northern Ireland would be included as part of the Republic of Ireland. Sources cited by the newspaper said the move aims to increase pressure on British Prime Minister Andy Burnham after he indicated that a Scottish independence referendum could be held if it was backed by public support.

Who is attending the Cardiff summit on self-determination?

The unprecedented summit will bring together Scottish First Minister John Swinney, Welsh First Minister Rhun ap Iorwerth and Northern Ireland First Minister Michelle O’Neill, with Sinn Féin president Mary Lou McDonald also expected to attend.

The gathering marks a rare coordination between the devolved administrations and Northern Ireland’s leadership, all currently governed by parties openly supportive of independence or Irish reunification: the Scottish National Party in Scotland, Plaid Cymru in Wales, and Sinn Féin in Northern Ireland.

What does the joint declaration on self-determination include?

According to The Telegraph, the declaration under preparation is structured around four main blocks: economy, energy, Europe, and international cooperation and self-determination.

The document is expected to call for the recognition of the right to organise referendums on self-determination, framing the issue as a democratic entitlement for the three nations within the United Kingdom. It will also outline areas for practical cooperation between the administrations, including on energy policy and economic strategy, while setting out a shared position on future relations with the European Union.

How has Prime Minister Andy Burnham responded to referendum calls?

Prime Minister Andy Burnham has said there could be another Scottish independence referendum if there was a “majority of public support” in favour of holding one, drawing parallels with the conditions for a border poll in Northern Ireland.

Speaking during Prime Minister’s Questions, Burnham stated:

“I would say that it is exactly the same situation in Scotland. I am not aware that there is majority public support for another referendum, and until that changes, there will not be one.”

However, in a subsequent letter to Scottish First Minister John Swinney, Burnham made clear that no consensus exists and repeated his view that another referendum was off limits while he focuses on growing the economy and cost of living pressures.

As reported by the Daily Business, Burnham wrote:

“In my remarks I was simply highlighting that there is no consensus for an independence referendum in Scotland and nor is there a clear basis to suggest that a majority of people in Northern Ireland presently wish to separate from the United Kingdom.”

What legal mechanism is needed for a Scottish independence referendum?

Legally, to trigger a second Scottish independence referendum, the UK Government would need to issue a Section 30 order under the Scotland Act, temporarily transferring the necessary powers to the Scottish Parliament.

Scottish First Minister John Swinney has invited Prime Minister Andy Burnham to meet to agree a “legal mechanism” which would trigger a second Scottish independence referendum, following Burnham’s remarks at PMQs. Swinney wrote to Burnham on Thursday, calling for talks on how an agreed legal mechanism for such a vote could be established.

Scottish Deputy First Minister Jenny Gilruth said the Prime Minister was “scared” to agree a mechanism for a second independence vote, arguing that Burnham “knows he would lose” a vote on Scottish independence.

Background to the push for independence referendums

The current push follows years of constitutional tension after the 2014 Scottish independence referendum, in which 55 per cent voted to remain in the UK, and the 2016 EU referendum, which saw Scotland vote strongly to remain in the European Union while the UK overall voted to leave.

In Northern Ireland, the Good Friday Agreement provides for a border poll on Irish reunification if it appears likely that a majority would vote for a united Ireland. Sinn Féin has long campaigned for such a poll, arguing that demographic and political changes have increased support for unity.

Wales, governed by Plaid Cymru in coalition with Labour, has seen growing debate over devolution and constitutional status, though support for full independence remains lower than in Scotland.

Prediction: How could this development affect voters and the UK’s political landscape?

If the joint declaration leads to sustained pressure for referendums, voters in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland could face renewed constitutional debates that dominate local and UK-wide politics.

For pro-independence supporters, coordinated action may strengthen the case that demand for self-determination is a UK-wide phenomenon rather than isolated to one nation. For unionist voters, the move could sharpen concerns about the stability of the United Kingdom and the economic implications of potential break-up.

Politically, the development may force the UK government to clarify its long-term position on devolution and constitutional change, potentially influencing future election campaigns and party strategies across all four nations.